Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
